One of my new research interests is China's energy needs. This paper uses computable general equilibrium which is not ideal (the process is to make a large number of assumptions and press a button).
The predictions seem to be sound however. 80% of oil imported is a lot. The West needs to develop alternative energy sources sooner rather than later.
The Sleeping Giant Awakes: Projecting Global Implications of China's Energy Consumption
Jian Zhang
World Bank
Denise Eby Konan
University of Hawaii at Manoa
Review of Development Economics, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 750-767, November 2010
Abstract:
China's rapid economic growth has generated a surge in energy demand that is reallocating global fuel balances. We employ a global energy computable general-equilibrium model to analyze alternative scenarios for economic growth, Chinese currency appreciation, and oil price shocks, with a special focus on China energy markets. Imports from the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and Sub-Saharan Africa are found to comprise a growing share of China's energy. Imports to China grow from 12% of world energy imports in 2010 to 17% by 2050 when over 80% of China's oil demand will be imported.
Accepted Paper Series
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