Tuesday 26 November 2013

China to America - "Game over"

Surprise, surprise, the Telegraph blog published a China scare story.  Interesting reading.

Will be it be a military or economic attack and which could do the most damage? The military argument seems to be about commenting on the parallels that China has now with Japan in the 1930s.  Look how that turned out.

Economically, if China stops buying US dollar and ditches the dollar things become expensive in the US very quickly killing off the fragile economic recovery.

What should the average American do?  I am not sure there is much they can do.  Buy bitcoins and hope is one possibility.

Is China about to tell the West: 'Game Over'? [Telegraph blog]

My Dad won't like this. As a massive Sinophile, he won't hear a bad word said about the Chinese and their honourable intentions. But here are two pieces I'd like to draw to your attention which offer an interesting counter-perspective.

The links are these:

 What if China attacks?  [David Archibold]
China yearns to be recognised as the most powerful nation on the planet. Driving the United States from the western Pacific would put that beyond doubt, and ongoing territorial disputes represent the perfect excuse

  China's planned crude oil futures may be priced in yuan - SHFE [Reuters]

Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) may price its crude oil futures contract in yuan and use medium sour crude as its benchmark, its chairman said on Thursday, adding that the bourse is speeding up preparatory work to secure regulatory approvals.
China, which overtook the United States as the world's top oil importer in September, hopes the contract will become a benchmark in Asia and has said it would allow foreign investors to trade in the contract without setting up a local subsidiary.
"China is the only country in the world that is a major crude producer, consumer and a big importer. It has all the necessary conditions to establish a successful crude oil futures contract," Yang Maijun, SHFE chairman, said at an industry conference.
Yang's presentation slides at the conference stated that the draft proposal is for the contract to be denominated in yuan and use the type of medium sour crude that China most commonly imports.

Saturday 2 November 2013

Research Paper: "Enhancing China's Medium-Term Growth Prospects: The Path to a High-Income Economy"

 The shape of China's economy is in the balance.  Academic paper touching on China's vulnerabilities (of which there are many).  Otherwise, a standard Province level study.

"Enhancing China's Medium-Term Growth Prospects: The Path to a High-Income Economy"

IMF Working Paper No. 13/204

MALHAR NABAR, International Monetary Fund (IMF)

PAPA N'DIAYE, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Asia and Pacific Department

China’s current growth model — which has delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty — has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns. Delays in advancing the government’s reform agenda will mean that vulnerabilities continue to grow and the probability of stalled convergence increases. On the other hand, with reforms to accelerate TFP growth and shift the economy away from its continued reliance on capital accumulation, China can grow at a healthy pace and maintain its convergence toward the level of high income economies. Evidence from China’s provinces indicates that there is room to improve productivity and sustain such a convergence toward the level of more prosperous economies.