Monday, 28 April 2008

Hot money and the calls for a maxi-revaluation

Brad Sester over at RGE monitor has a neat little article (with good figures) outlining the dangers of holding off the revaluation much longer.

For the record I cannot see it yet. The political implications are too great (the perceived job losses associated with a loss of competitiveness).

A good article and worth reading.

What keeps Zhou Xiaochuan up at night [RGE monitor]

Friday’s Lex column highlighted the possibility that China’s real reserve growth may be far higher than the published increase in its reserves – and thus a lot more hot money may be flowing into China than the published increase in China’s reserves implies. Michael Pettis – drawing on the work of Logan Wright of Stone and McCarthy - and I have both published online estimates of the “true” pace of Chinese reserve growth. Wang Tao – formerly of the Bank of America – and Stephen Green of Standard Chartered have done similar work.


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