Is China's military rise a real concern?

The lead editorial piece in Friday's FT concerned China's desire to have an aircraft carrier or two. At a time when the global economy is collapsing this is remarkable.

So what it the big deal? Inevitably Taiwan gets a mention but China has never had expansionist desires. Simply maintaining its current boarders is ambition enough.

The stakes are high but China has its own domestic worries to think about before other nations need worry to much.

China's rise rattles foreign nerves [FT]

In an intriguing FT interview, a senior member of China's defence ministry spoke openly about Beijing's "dream" of possessing an aircraft carrier - or two. Maj Gen Qian Lihua said: "The navy of any great power . . . has the dream to have one or more aircraft carriers. The question is not whether you have an aircraft carrier, but what you do with your aircraft carrier."

Quite. China's rise - it prefers the term "development" - promises to be perhaps the greatest event of our time. A prosperous China would immeasurably improve the lives of more than a billion people.

But the history of great nations rising is not a happy one. China's experience with Japan, another neighbour with global pretensions, showed that all too clearly. China's recent history suggests it is more interested in maintaining the borders established during the 1644-1911 Qing dynasty than in expanding further. But Beijing's neighbours are, not unreasonably, nervous about the military clout of an ambitious one-party state

China has, after all, threatened to go to war if Taiwan declares independence. In the second half of the 20th century its troops clashed with those of India, the Soviet Union and Vietnam. The secrecy surrounding Beijing's military spending provokes concern. The situation is made more delicate by several unresolved territorial disputes over islands and maritime boundaries. A fragile peace is kept by the US. But if Tokyo doubted for one second Washington's resolve to come to its defence, it would go nuclear, triggering a regional arms race.

The stakes are, therefore, extremely high. In principle, there is nothing wrong with China - a member of almost every important international organisation - developing a modern military. If that includes an aircraft carrier, so be it.

But it is incumbent on Beijing to build up its forces in a manner that does not make others jumpy. That means an honest account of how much it is spending and on what. It also means not pandering to nationalist rhetoric at home, and cementing better relations with neighbours through military exchanges and cool-headed diplomacy. In this respect, the recent thawing of relations with Tokyo is welcome.

The clearest safeguard of all is one Beijing cannot yet meet. Many Americans opposed the invasion of Iraq. Now, belatedly, voters have rejected the party that led them to war and elected a president promising an early withdrawal. China does not yet have that safety valve. Until it does, it is only natural that its military rise should prompt international jitters.

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US says "China to build up military"

A clear placement story in the FT of all papers. The US says that China is to build up it military. Why would it do anything less? Has US spending on defence increased/slowed/remained the same?

With China growing at over 10% a year it is inevitable that some of the tax dollars will be spend upgrading China's military capacity. We have covered this issue before back in September.

The US also complains about a lack of transparency. How much do we really know about US spending?

Chinese Military: Hacking and Transparency

Here is the FT article:

China looks to build up military, says US [FT]

The Chinese military is increasingly developing capabilities, including counter space programmes, to conduct military operations beyond any conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the Pentagon said on Monday.

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The Congressionally mandated report also stressed US concerns about a lack of transparency from China about its military build-up.

“The real story is the continuing development, the continuing modernisation, the continuing acquisition of capabilities and the corresponding and unfortunate lack of understanding, lack of transparency about the intentions behind those and the way they’re going to be deployed,” David Sedney, the deputy assistant secretary of defence for East Asia, said at the Pentagon.

“So what is China going to do with all that?”

The report raised concerns about China’s expanding naval power, saying the Chinese navy was gaining familiarity with open-water operations, and conducting exercises in international waters. It added the Chinese air force was improving the potential strike range of its bombers by enhancing radar systems and aerial refuelling.

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“China recently agreed to begin submitting an annual report to the United Nations on its military expenditures, which would be a positive step toward increasing transparency,” said Mr Skelton. “Also, China’s growing focus on professional military education suggests the U.S. should be pursuing possible opportunities for increased US-China engagement in this area.

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Chinese Military: Hacking and Transparancy

Two stories on the state of the Chinese military. The "Pentagon hacking" story is a good gauge of how quickly China is converging on the technological frontier. What begins with the military will spread, via knowledge spillovers, to industry.

The speed of Chinese technological development should not be underestimated.

China to Report Military Spending to UN

China said Sunday it will provide the United Nations with information on its military spending and arms deals for the first time in more than a decade, taking a step to address international concerns about the secrecy surrounding its defense spending and operations.

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China says spending for its People's Liberation Army, the world's largest standing army with 2.3 million members, grew 17.8 percent this year to about nearly $45 billion. It was the largest annual increase in more than a decade.

The Pentagon estimates China's actual defense spending may be much higher, because the official budget does not include money for high-priced weapons systems and some other items.

Although China does not currently provide information about its arms deals, several overseas organizations monitor the transactions.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which tracks the volume of arms transfers but not their financial value, said the three largest importers of Chinese arms in 2006 were Bangladesh, Pakistan and Iran, which accounted for nearly 75 percent of China's arms exports.

China is also a major arms exporter to Sudan, and has faced criticism from human rights activists who say Chinese weapons have been used in attacks in Darfur.

Chinese military hacked into Pentagon[FT]

The Chinese military hacked into a Pentagon computer network in June in the most successful cyber attack on the US defence department, say American ­officials.

The Pentagon acknowledged shutting down part of a computer system serving the office of Robert Gates, defence secretary, but declined to say who it believed was behind the attack.

Current and former officials have told the Financial Times an internal investigation has revealed that the incursion came from the People’s Liberation Army.

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“The PLA has demonstrated the ability to conduct attacks that disable our system...and the ability in a conflict situation to re-enter and disrupt on a very large scale,” said a former official, who said the PLA had penetrated the networks of US defence companies and think-tanks.