The debating society Intelligence Squared U.S. held a session last month on the motion: "Beware the dragon: A booming China spells trouble for America." Bill Gertz, Johm Mearsheimer and Michael Pillsbury spoke for the motion. Daniel Rosen, James McGregor and Stapleton Roy spoke against. James Harding of the Times of London served as moderator. A live audience of about 300 at Asia Society, New York City voted 35% for the motion and 59% against at the conclusion of the debate. Six percent (6%) were undecided.
The audio may be accessed here: http://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/Event.aspx?Event=15
Video may be viewed here: http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=7553C3DB04C6C19A
It is interesting to have a look at the profiles of those for and against the motion:
FOR THE MOTION
Bill Gertz is the defense and national security reporter for the Washington Times and the author of several books, including Enemies: How America ’s Foes Steal Our Vital Secrets—and How We Let It Happen and The China Threat: How the People's Republic Targets America. He is also an analyst for Fox News and has been interviewed on many news programs.
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science and the co-director of the Program on International Security Policy at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982. Professor Mearsheimer has written extensively about security issues and international politics. He has published three books, including Conventional Deterrence and The Tragedy of Great PowerPolitics.
Michael Pillsbury is a consultant to the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense on future planning issues. He has advised the Pentagon for more than three decades on subjects such as Asian affairs and long-term defense planning. He spent several years at the Rand Corporation and the National Defense University . Pillsbury has also served on the faculties of UCLA, USC, and Georgetown University , teaching East Asian politics.
AGAINST THE MOTION
Daniel H. Rosen is the Principal of China Strategic Advisory, a specialized practice helping decision-makers in the public and private sectors analyze and understand commercial, economic and policy trends in China. He is also an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University and a Visiting Fellow with the Institute for International Economics. As Senior Advisor for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council, he played a managing role in China ’s accession to the World Trade Organization.
James McGregor has served as a key advisor to both the U.S. and Chinese governments. A Mandarin speaker, he was the Wall Street Journal's China bureau chief following the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre, the chief executive of Dow Jones' China business operations during much of the 1990s, and a venture-capital investor during China's dotcom boom. McGregor is the author of One Billion Customers: Lessons from the Front Lines of Doing Business in China. He is also a former chairman and governor of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.
J. Stapleton Roy was promoted in 1996 to the rank of career ambassador, the highest rank in the U.S. Foreign Service. Fluent in Chinese and a specialist in Asian affairs, Ambassador Roy rose to become a three-time ambassador, serving in Singapore, the People's Republic of China, and Indonesia. Roy served as Assistant Secretary of State for intelligence and research from 1999 to 2000. He is currently a managing director of Kissinger Associates, Inc.
I must admit to being a little surprised but mildly impressed that the motion failed given the US audience and the recent press coverage of US-China relations. Perhaps there is hope after all.