Wednesday, 3 November 2010

China's energy demand in 21st century

One of my new research interests is China's energy needs. This paper uses computable general equilibrium which is not ideal (the process is to make a large number of assumptions and press a button).

The predictions seem to be sound however. 80% of oil imported is a lot. The West needs to develop alternative energy sources sooner rather than later.

The Sleeping Giant Awakes: Projecting Global Implications of China's Energy Consumption

Jian Zhang
World Bank

Denise Eby Konan
University of Hawaii at Manoa

Review of Development Economics, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 750-767, November 2010

China's rapid economic growth has generated a surge in energy demand that is reallocating global fuel balances. We employ a global energy computable general-equilibrium model to analyze alternative scenarios for economic growth, Chinese currency appreciation, and oil price shocks, with a special focus on China energy markets. Imports from the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and Sub-Saharan Africa are found to comprise a growing share of China's energy. Imports to China grow from 12% of world energy imports in 2010 to 17% by 2050 when over 80% of China's oil demand will be imported.

Accepted Paper Series


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