Monday, 20 October 2008

China’s Economic Growth 1978–2025

A new paper published in World Development that looks carefully at China's growth patterns over the last 30 years and into the future.

This was written before the current financial crisis so is probably already out of date but useful as an historical piece.

This line from the abstract made me laugh in light of a previous post which notes that China's growth has already fallen below 10%.

Overall, China’s economic growth is likely to continue at current rates through 2015 before it gradually slows.

Economists are never to be trusted.

China’s Economic Growth 1978–2025: What We Know Today About China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow

Carsten A. Holza,
Princeton University, NJ, USA
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong

Accepted 24 September 2007.
Available online 29 August 2008.


This paper examines China’s future growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth using two approaches. It first asks in how far China’s recent economic development matches standard growth patterns identified in development economics and trade theory. Second, GDP is decomposed into income components, which in turn are explained, for the reform period, by the quantity and quality of labor; future GDP can then be re-composed from future labor data available today. Overall, China’s economic growth is likely to continue at current rates through 2015 before it gradually slows. Such a growth has numerous implications.

Key words: economic growth; growth accounting; growth forecasts; development theories; education; China



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