Friday 23 November 2007

The trade deficit that is growing at €15m an hour

It is no longer just the US who are keen to bash China over its growing trade deficits at every opportunity.

Today's FT reports on Peter Mandelson's warning to China that it is prepared to use good old "anti-dumping" measures to "defend" itself against Chinese exports.

The statistic trotted out in the article is that the EU's trade deficit with China is growing at 15million Euros an hour. That is a good statistic and does sound impressively scary.

The hook is that Peter Mandelson is happy with Chinese exports and is spinning this as a demand for freer trade. Leaving the exchange rate issue aside (which we have covered many times before) one of the criticisms is that China is putting limits on market access for foreign countries. This argument does have legs.

However, Mandelson is also keen to explain that he sees the current growth in the trade deficit as "unsustainable". What does that really mean?

The EU also has issues over intellectual property rights, fake goods and cumbersome bureaucratic procedures.

It is a sign of China's coming of age that it is no longer appears to be allowed to play the "still developing" card. It seems the patience of China's trade partners is beginning to wear thin and they are gearing up to play hard.

Make no mistake, China can ill-afford to become embroiled in a trade war with the EU and the US. For all its hard line rhetoric it still has to create millions of jobs in the manufacturing sector a year and it needs markets to sell these products.

Finally, I do not really understand what Peter is talking about in this paragraph.

Mr Mandelson said Chinese leaders needed to act to reduce non-tariff barriers, regulation and discrimination against European companies, saying that "when we pin them to the actions, they respond in terms of trade fairs and investment promotion". He added: "I don't want takeaways or overnight presentational devices. I want real sustained action to remedy the problems."


Is he talking about fast food? What is an overnight presentational device? I am lost.

Mandelson warns China on trade gap[FT]
Peter Mandelson, the European Union trade commissioner, warned China yesterday that the EU could be forced to use anti-dumping measures to defend itself against Chinese exports if Beijing failed to help cut an "unsustainable" trade deficit growing by €15m an hour.

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EU frustrations with Chinese limits on market access for foreign companies, and an exchange-rate policy seen as undervaluing the renminbi, have been fuelled by the growth of its trade deficit with China to €86bn ($128bn, £62bn) in the first seven months of the year.

"Europe is becoming more open to China, but I can't sustain that unless China shows the same openness to us," Mr Mandelson told the Financial Times. He pointed out that he would come under increasing pressure to take tougher action if Beijing did not move to clear market barriers.

"During the six days that I spent in China, the trade deficit will grow by over €2bn, or €15m an hour," he said. "That is what I call unsustainable. There are real issues of market access, legal protection, as well as the other issues we are dealing with - like counterfeiting and export of fake goods."

Mr Mandelson's call to China reflects frustration among European companies at what they see as Beijing's failure to act on a host of long-standing complaints.

Mr Mandelson said Chinese leaders needed to act to reduce non-tariff barriers, regulation and discrimination against European companies, saying that "when we pin them to the actions, they respond in terms of trade fairs and investment promotion". He added: "I don't want takeaways or overnight presentational devices. I want real sustained action to remedy the problems."

He made clear that a Chinese failure to deliver change could force Brussels to resort to trade defence measures, such as anti-dumping duties or - in extreme circumstances- complaints to the World Trade Organisation.

China should also "manage its currency better", both for its own economic good and to address the widening trade gap.

A survey of EU companies by the European Chamber in Beijing yesterday highlighted corporate dissatisfaction with China's lack of transparency, its record on intellectual property protection and its cumbersome bureaucratic procedures.

"The investment climate is unfortunately not getting better," said Jörg Wuttke, the chamber's president. Intellectual property rights protection remained a problem for 66 per cent of responding companies, despite Beijing's promises to address the issue, he added.

Despite such complaints, 61 per cent of European companies in China reported being profitable and 73 per cent were optimistic about future growth, the chamber survey found.

The summit comes shortly after Germany's finance minister cancelled a trip to Beijing after his counterpart refused to see him in apparent protest over a meeting between Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader.


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