tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5458209304128232367.post1309721653447070560..comments2023-11-02T08:44:12.524-07:00Comments on China Economics Blog: Will Chinese growth REALLY hit 8%?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08649345297844206449noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5458209304128232367.post-55767579463665853082009-01-09T15:23:00.000-08:002009-01-09T15:23:00.000-08:00Think you're mixing up ends with means here; the r...Think you're mixing up ends with means here; the reason why China needs a growth rate of 7%+ is as this signals that the private sector does its part in delivering enough jobs, however, should the need arise the Chinese state still has the means to make up that deficit by coming up with a way to get those people employed, even if it is just temporarily. <BR/>The most important thing, in terms of riot potential, is to preserve a decent outlook for university students. Any idea on their projected growth rate? It's been 5.6 and is now around 6.1.<BR/><BR/>-Yamu<BR/><BR/>-YamuAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5458209304128232367.post-90828597211792237522009-01-07T05:02:00.000-08:002009-01-07T05:02:00.000-08:00But think about what it would take to hit 8% growt...But think about what it would take to hit 8% growth. Pulling numbers out of my memory here, but:<BR/><BR/>Nominal GDP around 30 trillion RMB, so 8% growth would be 2.4 trillion RMB in 2009.<BR/><BR/>The central government has already said they will inject between 1 and 1.5 trillion into the economy. Even if it were only 1 trillion, and even if only half of that actually "hits" GDP in 2009, that in itself would be 500 billion RMB, or ~22% of the total growth needed. Even if the most pessimistic growth estimates become reality (currently around 5%, I think), most of the difference would be made up by government money coming into the system (assuming they do not incorporate such a stimulus). Of course, if the government spends more, or if more of the impact is felt in 2009, the growth will increase accordingly.Micahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09660244158048965234noreply@blogger.com